January 2010 In the words of Dave Barry, 2009 was a year of Hope — at first in the sense of, "I feel hopeful!" and later in the sense of "I hope this year ends soon!" If you want to be entertained (and have a good bit of spare time), you can read Barry's entire "year in review" at http://www.miamiherald.com/283/story/1397654.html. While a few seemed to prosper and generally have a good year in '09, many more of us were only too ready to see it end -- with the hope that 2010 will be better. Attention was focused on massive job layoffs and home prices that continued to tank. But at least the stock market had good news: The DOW, which dropped to 6,469 early in the year (continuing its freefall from 2008), ended up at nearly 10,500! The NASDAQ had a similar run, almost doubling over the course of the year. But then, December 31 didn't just end 2009 -- it closed out a decade... Decade flipped Arizona upside down The past decade left us suspended in a mixed-up, flip-flopped, upside-down place. Squaw Peak became Piestewa Peak, but no one remembers the new name. America West Airlines is now U.S. Airways. Bank One Ballpark ("Bob") is now Chase Field. What started the decade as the Phoenix Open became the FBR Open, and now is the Waste Management Phoenix Open. My vote: change it back to simply the "Phoenix Open" and leave it alone. Homes that were worth $200,000 jumped to $400,000+, then dropped back to $200,000 -- or even less! We began by desparately trying to fill new construction jobs, but then furloughs, layoffs and the highest percentage of jobs lost in the nation left many looking for any job -- period. The first half of the decade brought dramatic population growth: some 120,000 new residents each year. We couldn't build houses fast enough. Now we have too many houses, and have a hard time finding anyone to take them off our hands. Gas prices began the decade around $1.25 per gallon, jumped to more than $4.00/gallon in 2008, and no have "settled" back around $2.60. Jobs that were so promising and plentiful in 2000 have become scarce, as Arizona "boasted" the nation's biggest drop in employment in 2009. In fact, sometimes it seems everything is wrong and the "good times" are gone. Perhaps we should just sit down, beat our heels on the ground, and call for the wa-a-ambulance! But wait... We are living in Phoenix. You know, the mythological firebird that rises from the ashes? In that story, life triumphs over defeat. What a concept!
Some of you are thinking about buying or selling a home and don’t know if you should jump in now or should wait... “hoping the prices drift down a bit”. So what should you do? Well, the answer to that question depends on many things, but here in Phoenix, it depends a lot on what price range you are considering. There is no single “real estate market” in Phoenix that moves one way or another. There are THREE distinct and different markets here in the valley: lower end, middle, and upper end homes. Under $200k... With lower-end of the housing market, nventory is low (no more than a five month supply) and prices are rising. Under $100k has less than a 90 day supply. $200K - $400k... Very well balanced (a 7.4 month supply) – with little or no price movement in either direction. $400 - 500k has a 9.5 month supply valley wide, with slight downward pressure on prices. $600 – 800k... a 13.7 month supply, with clearly downward pressure on prices. $800k+... almost a two year supply, with a strong downward pressure on prices. $2 – $3+ million... a six and half year supply. Get the picture? Of course, price range isn't everything (i.e. a home priced at 200K is not necessarily a good deal just because it is at a high demand price point.) A home's value is best determined by a specific supply/demand analysis on the exact neighborhood and house you may be looking to purchase. Short Sales & Foreclosure Bargains On the other hand, if you -- or anyone you know -- are considering the "short sale" of your home, and would like some confidential advice and help, we are well qualified to assist you in handling these complex situations. As always, please keep us in mind with all your Real Estate needs (don’t forget to refer your friends to us). We are always looking for new buyers and sellers, so if you know of anyone planning to buy or sell a home, please point them our way! Economic predictions for 2010 Dec. 27, 2009 - The Great Recession of the past couple of years had many people asking for a crystal ball this holiday season. …some predictions on the headlines that we might see in 2010… Click here for complete article.
Arizona's road to recovery mapped out The Arizona Republic - Jan. 1, 2010 As Arizona enters its third year of recession, recovery remains elusive. Despite its increasing diversification, Arizona's economy needs new residents to fill all the empty houses. It needs tourists and business meetings to fill resorts and hotels. Arizona will bounce back economically only as quickly as its core industries revive, and that is projected to take four or five years. But the fundamental strengths that have made the state one of the nation's fastest-growing for decades haven't evaporated.. Click here for complete article.
Housing recovery in Valley likely to slow with stimulus expiration Throughout 2009, the federal government created a variety of stimulus measures to keep the housing economy moving. This year, the training wheels come off. Stimulus programs expected to end in the coming months include a homebuyer income-tax rebate of up to $8,000 and a $1.25 trillion government buy-up of mortgage-backed securities that has helped keep interest rates low. Click here for complete article.
Home Prices Still Improving, but at a Moderating Pace RISMEDIA, December 31, 2009—Data through October 2009, recently released by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, one of the leading measures of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately nine months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009. Click here for complete article. (Note the data on Phoenix towards the end of this article)
Housing business picks up in Valley; foreclosures drop The Arizona Republic - Dec. 9, 2009 The final tally for homebuilding permits in the Phoenix area this year will be about 8,800, which is down 85 percent from the peak in 2005. But the building market is picking back up as the oversupply of speculatively built homes sells. Phoenix's housing market hit bottom in early April, said Mike Orr, principal of the Cromford Report, a real-estate research firm. Based on current price trends, the housing market could start to see positive appreciation rates by March. Click here for complete article.
Home sales spike in November Sales rate of resale homes climbs 44% year-over-year RISMEDIA, December 23, 2009—Existing home sales rose again in November 2009 as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops– rose 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1% higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million. Click here for complete article.
Lack of Bank Liquidity Threatens Commercial Real Estate Market 12/22/2009 - According to Remington Financial Group, a capital services company based in Scottsdale, Arizona, a lack of bank liquidity poses a severe threat to the commercial real estate market. Click here for complete article.
As Demand Disappears, Builders Say 2009 Marks Housing’s Bottom RISMEDIA, December 18, 2009—Despite significantly lower traffic and sales this month, Southern California retained pricing strength and the majority of surveyed builders expect revenues to increase in 2010, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting’s December survey of home builders. Click here for complete article. January 2010 Mortgage Rates (from BankRate.com)
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Should I Buy or Sell in 2010? 
